Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 30.027514 33.455685 37.391159 42.310945 48.397423 55.824322 65.814139
2025-06-01 25.030631 29.298646 34.644884 42.066601 52.530044 67.546377 92.576239
2025-06-08 21.702416 26.275764 32.369091 41.526454 55.905297 79.865564 130.222304
2025-06-15 19.379989 24.058733 30.591466 41.052428 59.068679 93.666800 188.153184
2025-06-22 17.696636 22.410013 29.245458 40.793697 62.402628 110.154460 289.241255
2025-06-29 16.216229 20.831457 27.712795 39.819544 64.020940 124.465966 445.919800
2025-07-06 15.649234 20.495523 28.001471 41.989584 72.871357 167.630916 1406.856375
2025-07-13 14.689402 19.450326 26.986980 41.520612 75.670633 196.920488 6633.611832
2025-07-20 13.997159 18.743591 26.429874 41.801631 80.520164 245.452296 NaN
2025-07-27 13.411971 18.146189 25.975579 42.184183 85.935286 315.294867 NaN
2025-08-03 12.828256 17.498536 25.352819 42.077854 89.965416 397.895778 NaN
2025-08-10 12.243424 16.803213 24.569433 41.469189 92.186264 485.265426 NaN
2025-08-17 11.799348 16.316739 24.133162 41.615911 97.431973 675.743482 NaN
2025-08-24 11.341887 15.776940 23.546599 41.310386 101.015646 933.037648 NaN
2025-08-31 10.897916 15.231865 22.901323 40.756339 103.456536 1298.143426 NaN
2025-09-07 10.501472 14.744263 22.324815 40.283558 106.154664 1975.089365 NaN
2025-09-14 10.160472 14.332334 21.860863 40.026924 109.884381 3762.172983 NaN
2025-09-21 9.776870 13.826108 21.172993 39.080035 109.796144 6240.172529 NaN
2025-09-28 9.713246 13.874625 21.590081 41.181650 127.852246 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.419947 13.499612 21.117320 40.726868 131.014802 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.209029 13.261121 20.907343 40.998817 139.447609 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.019195 13.050620 20.738841 41.369181 149.412266 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.803556 12.782815 20.429726 41.266165 156.053609 NaN NaN